G2026 California US House 22
G2026 California US House 22
Forecasted Win Probability
Randy Villegas
David Valadao*
Decision Desk HQ's forecast for this race blends 75% fundamentals and 25% markets. Fundamentals capture the structural conditions of the race, including partisan baseline adjusted for national environment, incumbency, presidential party cycle effects, and net campaign financial advantage.
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Randy Villegas | 48.00% |
| David Valadao | 44.00% |
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Generic Democrat | 44.00% |
| David Valadao | 42.00% |
How candidates and outside groups are spending money in this race
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Outside Support | Outside Oppose | Report | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 David Valadao | $4,927,602 | $1,607,550 | $144,808 | $451,396 | JULY QUARTERLY | 6/30/2026 |
| David Valadao | $4,233,413 | $1,398,372 | $83,678 | $451,396 | PRE-PRIMARY | 5/13/2026 |
 Randy Villegas | $2,645,560 | $2,073,768 | $1,954,505 | $2,287,529 | JULY QUARTERLY | 6/30/2026 |
| Randy Villegas | $1,748,192 | $1,411,156 | $1,283,561 | $1,154,025 | PRE-PRIMARY | 5/13/2026 |
