G2026 California US House 20
G2026 California US House 20
Forecasted Win Probability
Vince Fong*
Sandra Van Scotter
Decision Desk HQ's forecast for this race blends 75% fundamentals and 25% markets. Fundamentals capture the structural conditions of the race, including partisan baseline adjusted for national environment, incumbency, presidential party cycle effects, and net campaign financial advantage.
If the election for Congress were being held today, who would Americans vote for?
Candidate | Average | 1W | 1M |
|---|---|---|---|
Democrat | 45.50% | -1.2% | +0.3% |
Republican | 39.80% | -1.1% | -0.5% |
| Democrat +5.7% | |||
 | |||
How candidates and outside groups are spending money in this race
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Outside Support | Outside Oppose | Report | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Vince Fong | $1,849,356 | $1,434,838 | - | - | JULY QUARTERLY | 6/30/2026 |
| Vince Fong | $1,592,260 | $1,317,278 | - | - | PRE-PRIMARY | 5/13/2026 |
 Sandra Van Scotter | $17,086 | $16,701 | - | - | JULY QUARTERLY | 6/30/2026 |
| Sandra Van Scotter | $12,166 | $9,765 | - | - | PRE-PRIMARY | 5/13/2026 |
