Republicans are safe to win Alabama's 6th District

Last updated Aug 6, 2:48 PM

Republicans

99%

Probability

Democrats

Probability

Safe Republican

Generic BallotD+5.7

Projected MarginR+29

Trend—

Forecast Components

Decision Desk HQ's forecast for this race blends 75% fundamentals and 25% markets. Fundamentals capture the structural conditions of the race, including partisan baseline adjusted for national environment, incumbency, presidential party cycle effects, and net campaign financial advantage.

Forecast Breakdown

Fundamentals75%

Markets25%

Generic Congressional Ballot

If the election for Congress were being held today, who would Americans vote for?

Aug 5, 10:26 AM EDTNationalLV, RV, Adults

Candidate	Average	1W	1M
Democrat	45.50%	-1.2%	+0.3%
Republican	39.80%	-1.1%	-0.5%
Democrat +5.7%
Democrat +5.7%

FEC Data

How candidates and outside groups are spending money in this race

Candidate	Raised	Spent	Outside Support	Outside Oppose	Report	Date
Gary Palmer	$1,053,566	$946,083	$131,018	-	PRE-PRIMARY	7/22/2026
Gary Palmer	$1,011,566	$907,144	$131,018	-	JULY QUARTERLY	6/30/2026
Elizabeth Anderson	$15,899	$48,622	-	-	TERMINATION REPORT	3/15/2026

DDHQ Analytics

Markets

Watchlist

Social Media

Republicans >99%

Republicans are safe to win Alabama's 6th District

Forecast Components

Generic Congressional Ballot

FEC Data