Dusty Johnson is safe to win South Dakota's At-Large District

Last updated Nov 4, 12:00 AM

Dusty Johnson*

>99%

Probability

Sheryl Johnson

<1%

Probability

Safe Republican

PVIR+15

Generic BallotD+7.4

Projected MarginR+34

Trend—

Forecast Components

Decision Desk HQ's forecast for this race blends 100% fundamentals. Fundamentals capture the structural conditions of the race, including partisan baseline adjusted for national environment, incumbency, presidential party cycle effects, and net campaign financial advantage.

Forecast Breakdown

Fundamentals100%

Generic Congressional Ballot

If the election for Congress were being held today, who would Americans vote for?

Sep 17, 3:57 PM EDTNationalLV, RV, Adults

Candidate	Average	1W	1M
Democrat	48.30%	-0.1%	+1.6%
Republican	40.90%	-0.4%	+0.5%
Democrat +7.4%
Democrat +7.4%

FEC Data

How candidates and outside groups are spending money in this race

Candidate	Raised	Spent	Outside Support	Outside Oppose	Report	Date
Dusty Johnson	$4,377,059	$1,454,148	$124,736	-	YEAR-END	12/31/2024
Sheryl Johnson	$223,983	$225,895	-	-	YEAR-END	12/31/2024

DDHQ Analytics

Markets

2024 South Dakota US House At-Large

Watchlist

Social Media

Dusty Johnson* >99%

Dusty Johnson is safe to win South Dakota's At-Large District

Forecast Components

Generic Congressional Ballot

FEC Data