Pennsylvania's 8th District leans in favor of Matthew Cartwright

Last updated Nov 4, 12:00 AM

Matthew Cartwright*

66%

Probability

Robert Bresnahan

34%

Probability

Lean Democratic

PVIR+3

Generic BallotD+7.4

Projected MarginD+3

Trend—

Forecast Components

Decision Desk HQ's forecast for this race blends 100% fundamentals. Fundamentals capture the structural conditions of the race, including partisan baseline adjusted for national environment, incumbency, presidential party cycle effects, and net campaign financial advantage.

Forecast Breakdown

Fundamentals100%

Generic Congressional Ballot

If the election for Congress were being held today, who would Americans vote for?

Sep 17, 3:57 PM EDTNationalLV, RV, Adults

Candidate	Average	1W	1M
Democrat	48.30%	-0.1%	+1.6%
Republican	40.90%	-0.4%	+0.5%
Democrat +7.4%
Democrat +7.4%

FEC Data

How candidates and outside groups are spending money in this race

Candidate	Raised	Spent	Outside Support	Outside Oppose	Report	Date
Matthew Cartwright	$8,650,658	$8,614,503	$675,197	$7,565,210	YEAR-END	12/31/2024
Rob Bresnahan Jr.	$4,540,166	$4,487,014	$1,218,014	$9,819,971	YEAR-END	12/31/2024

DDHQ Analytics

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2024 Pennsylvania US House 8

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Matthew Cartwright* 66%

Pennsylvania's 8th District leans in favor of Matthew Cartwright

Forecast Components

Generic Congressional Ballot

FEC Data