Marcy Kaptur is likely to win Ohio's 9th District

Last updated Nov 4, 12:00 AM

Marcy Kaptur*

78%

Probability

Derek Merrin

22%

Probability

Likely Democratic

PVIR+2

Generic BallotD+7.4

Projected MarginD+5

Trend—

Forecast Components

Decision Desk HQ's forecast for this race blends 100% fundamentals. Fundamentals capture the structural conditions of the race, including partisan baseline adjusted for national environment, incumbency, presidential party cycle effects, and net campaign financial advantage.

Forecast Breakdown

Fundamentals100%

Generic Congressional Ballot

If the election for Congress were being held today, who would Americans vote for?

Sep 17, 3:57 PM EDTNationalLV, RV, Adults

Candidate	Average	1W	1M
Democrat	48.30%	-0.1%	+1.6%
Republican	40.90%	-0.4%	+0.5%
Democrat +7.4%
Democrat +7.4%

FEC Data

How candidates and outside groups are spending money in this race

Candidate	Raised	Spent	Outside Support	Outside Oppose	Report	Date
Marcy Kaptur	$5,063,733	$4,995,853	$1,013,841	$6,419,665	YEAR-END	12/31/2024
Derek Merrin	$1,722,804	$1,646,153	$2,349,136	$7,587,423	YEAR-END	12/31/2024

DDHQ Analytics

Markets

2024 Ohio US House 9

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Marcy Kaptur* 78%

Marcy Kaptur is likely to win Ohio's 9th District

Forecast Components

Generic Congressional Ballot

FEC Data