Tom Suozzi is likely to win New York's 3rd District

Last updated Nov 4, 12:00 AM

Tom Suozzi*

89%

Probability

Michael LiPetri Jr.

11%

Probability

Likely Democratic

Potential Flip

PVID+3

Generic BallotD+7.4

Projected MarginD+9

Trend—

Forecast Components

Decision Desk HQ's forecast for this race blends 100% fundamentals. Fundamentals capture the structural conditions of the race, including partisan baseline adjusted for national environment, incumbency, presidential party cycle effects, and net campaign financial advantage.

Forecast Breakdown

Fundamentals100%

Generic Congressional Ballot

If the election for Congress were being held today, who would Americans vote for?

Sep 17, 3:57 PM EDTNationalLV, RV, Adults

Candidate	Average	1W	1M
Democrat	48.30%	-0.1%	+1.6%
Republican	40.90%	-0.4%	+0.5%
Democrat +7.4%
Democrat +7.4%

FEC Data

How candidates and outside groups are spending money in this race

Candidate	Raised	Spent	Outside Support	Outside Oppose	Report	Date
Thomas Suozzi	$9,646,883	$7,675,778	$4,536,720	$7,547,082	YEAR-END	12/31/2024
Michael LiPetri Jr.	$970,548	$960,069	-	-	YEAR-END	12/31/2024

DDHQ Analytics

Markets

2024 New York US House 3

Watchlist

Social Media

Tom Suozzi* 89%

Tom Suozzi is likely to win New York's 3rd District

Forecast Components

Generic Congressional Ballot

FEC Data