New York's 22nd District leans in favor of John Mannion

Last updated Nov 4, 12:00 AM

John Mannion

61%

Probability

Brandon Williams*

39%

Probability

Lean Democratic

Potential Flip

PVID+2

Generic BallotD+7.4

Projected MarginD+2

Trend—

Forecast Components

Decision Desk HQ's forecast for this race blends 100% fundamentals. Fundamentals capture the structural conditions of the race, including partisan baseline adjusted for national environment, incumbency, presidential party cycle effects, and net campaign financial advantage.

Forecast Breakdown

Fundamentals100%

Generic Congressional Ballot

If the election for Congress were being held today, who would Americans vote for?

Sep 17, 3:57 PM EDTNationalLV, RV, Adults

Candidate	Average	1W	1M
Democrat	48.30%	-0.1%	+1.6%
Republican	40.90%	-0.4%	+0.5%
Democrat +7.4%
Democrat +7.4%

FEC Data

How candidates and outside groups are spending money in this race

Candidate	Raised	Spent	Outside Support	Outside Oppose	Report	Date
Brandon Williams	$4,190,243	$4,208,336	$537,329	$4,602,036	YEAR-END	12/31/2024
John Mannion	$4,161,857	$4,033,616	$3,274,423	$3,691,318	YEAR-END	12/31/2024

DDHQ Analytics

Markets

2024 New York US House 22

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John Mannion 61%

New York's 22nd District leans in favor of John Mannion

Forecast Components

Generic Congressional Ballot

FEC Data