Paul Junge is narrowly favored to win Michigan's 8th District

Last updated Nov 4, 12:00 AM

Paul Junge

54%

Probability

Kristen McDonald Rivet

46%

Probability

Toss Up

Potential Flip

PVIEVEN

Generic BallotD+7.4

Projected MarginR+1

Trend—

Forecast Components

Decision Desk HQ's forecast for this race blends 100% fundamentals. Fundamentals capture the structural conditions of the race, including partisan baseline adjusted for national environment, incumbency, presidential party cycle effects, and net campaign financial advantage.

Forecast Breakdown

Fundamentals100%

Generic Congressional Ballot

If the election for Congress were being held today, who would Americans vote for?

Sep 17, 3:57 PM EDTNationalLV, RV, Adults

Candidate	Average	1W	1M
Democrat	48.30%	-0.1%	+1.6%
Republican	40.90%	-0.4%	+0.5%
Democrat +7.4%
Democrat +7.4%

FEC Data

How candidates and outside groups are spending money in this race

Candidate	Raised	Spent	Outside Support	Outside Oppose	Report	Date
Kristen McDonald	$6,067,032	$6,050,001	$913,433	$6,057,230	YEAR-END	12/31/2024
Paul Junge	$5,984,459	$5,636,818	$615,858	$6,263,705	YEAR-END	12/31/2024

DDHQ Analytics

Markets

2024 Michigan US House 8

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Paul Junge 54%

Paul Junge is narrowly favored to win Michigan's 8th District

Forecast Components

Generic Congressional Ballot

FEC Data