Forecasted Win Probability
Mike Rounds*
Brian Bengs
Decision Desk HQ's forecast for this race blends 75% fundamentals and 25% markets. Fundamentals capture the structural conditions of the race, including partisan baseline adjusted for national environment, incumbency, presidential party cycle effects, and net campaign financial advantage.
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Mike Rounds | 45.00% |
| Brian Bengs | 42.00% |
| Other Option | 13.00% |
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Brian Bengs | 44.00% |
| Mike Rounds | 44.00% |
| Other Option | 12.00% |
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Mike Rounds | 56.00% |
| Brian Bengs | 33.00% |
How candidates and outside groups are spending money in this race
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Outside Support | Outside Oppose | Report | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Mike Rounds | $4,513,920 | $3,459,778 | $565,848 | - | JULY QUARTERLY | 6/30/2026 |
| Mike Rounds | $3,983,663 | $3,008,909 | $545,348 | - | PRE-PRIMARY | 5/13/2026 |
 Brian Bengs | $782,050 | $730,644 | - | - | JULY QUARTERLY | 6/30/2026 |
