Forecasted Win Probability
Richard Hudson*
Richard Ojeda
Decision Desk HQ's forecast for this race blends 73% fundamentals, 2% polls, and 25% markets. Fundamentals capture the structural conditions of the race, including partisan baseline adjusted for national environment, incumbency, presidential party cycle effects, and net campaign financial advantage.
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Richard Hudson | 46.00% |
| Richard Ojeda | 42.00% |
How candidates and outside groups are spending money in this race
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Outside Support | Outside Oppose | Report | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Richard Hudson | $3,215,341 | $2,511,943 | - | $138,428 | JULY QUARTERLY | 6/30/2026 |
| Richard Hudson | $2,777,387 | $1,872,759 | - | - | APRIL QUARTERLY | 3/31/2026 |
 Richard Ojeda | $2,237,508 | $2,073,836 | $6,335 | - | JULY QUARTERLY | 6/30/2026 |
| Richard Ojeda | $1,921,943 | $1,697,655 | $1,335 | - | APRIL QUARTERLY | 3/31/2026 |
