Forecasted Win Probability
ForecastLast updated Sep 18, 2:40 PM
Patrick Harrigan*
Ashley Bell
Decision Desk HQ's forecast for this race blends 75% fundamentals and 25% markets. Fundamentals capture the structural conditions of the race, including partisan baseline adjusted for national environment, incumbency, presidential party cycle effects, and net campaign financial advantage.
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Pat Harrigan | 52.00% |
| Ashley Bell | 37.00% |
| Other | 11.00% |
How candidates and outside groups are spending money in this race
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Outside Support | Outside Oppose | Report | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Patrick Harrigan | $1,081,821 | $683,387 | - | - | JULY QUARTERLY | 6/30/2026 |
| Patrick Harrigan | $973,976 | $586,538 | - | - | APRIL QUARTERLY | 3/31/2026 |
 Ashley Bell | $84,024 | $57,805 | $57 | - | JULY QUARTERLY | 6/30/2026 |
| Ashley Bell | $28,004 | $24,345 | $57 | - | APRIL QUARTERLY | 3/31/2026 |
