Forecasted Win Probability
Gabriel Vasquez*
Gregory Cunningham
Decision Desk HQ's forecast for this race blends 73% fundamentals, 2% polls, and 25% markets. Fundamentals capture the structural conditions of the race, including partisan baseline adjusted for national environment, incumbency, presidential party cycle effects, and net campaign financial advantage.
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Gabriel Vasquez | 46.00% |
| Gregory Cunningham | 43.00% |
| Other Option | 11.00% |
How candidates and outside groups are spending money in this race
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Outside Support | Outside Oppose | Report | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Gabriel Vasquez | $3,784,102 | $1,444,484 | $363 | - | JULY QUARTERLY | 6/30/2026 |
| Gabriel Vasquez | $3,157,009 | $1,239,654 | $257 | - | PRE-PRIMARY | 5/13/2026 |
 Gregory Cunningham | $1,347,081 | $578,893 | - | - | JULY QUARTERLY | 6/30/2026 |
| Gregory Cunningham | $678,540 | $329,341 | - | - | PRE-PRIMARY | 5/13/2026 |
