Forecasted Win Probability
Peggy Flanagan
Michele Tafoya
Decision Desk HQ's forecast for this race blends 53% fundamentals, 22% polls, and 25% markets. Fundamentals capture the structural conditions of the race, including partisan baseline adjusted for national environment, incumbency, presidential party cycle effects, and net campaign financial advantage.
If the election for Minnesota US Senate were held today, who would voters choose?
Candidate | Average | 1W | 1M |
|---|---|---|---|
 | |||
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| Flanagan | |||
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How candidates and outside groups are spending money in this race
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Outside Support | Outside Oppose | Report | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peggy Flanagan | $6,517,348 | $5,458,744 | $231,279 | $6,608,910 | PRE-PRIMARY | 7/22/2026 |
| Michelle Tafoya | $5,292,553 | $3,959,487 | $19,684 | $51,478 | PRE-PRIMARY | 7/22/2026 |
| Michelle Tafoya | $4,669,609 | $2,588,978 | - | - | JULY QUARTERLY | 6/30/2026 |
| Michelle Tafoya | $2,041,940 | $186,972 | - | - | APRIL QUARTERLY | 3/31/2026 |
